The Chip Insider®– The HBM race

Summary: Controversies, Questions & Answers:

AI bifurcating tech roadmaps? The history of semiconductor demand sources driving semiconductor technology roadmaps and competitive champions is one where the last one becomes the platform for the new upstart… It’s layered, like the Grand Canyon, with leveled-out growth drivers that formed the platforms for the next demand driver. They rarely go away, hence the layers of demand… The lesson is that the current growth driver always displaces the last one as the technology driver, which is because growth is where the profits come from.

Is the Semi center of power shifting from logic to memory? No, Logic and memory are perfect complements to each other: each always needs the other… Hence, leading to the market state of shortages we are in today.

Memory market cyclicality lowering? While the memory semiconductor market is still fundamentally cyclical, it is becoming less cyclical because most HBM is not a commodity. The silicon cycle has multiple waves of cyclicality. The one that never goes away comes from… HBM’s architectural fact has altered the structure of the market... There are moves to standardize HBM… I would be surprised if HBM becomes standardized, because… like my grandfather said, “It’s awfully hard to get the turkey to willingly put its head on the chopping block.”

Why was the US slow to restrict HBM? In my view, US policymakers were slow to recognize HBM’s strategic importance simply because one had to know how AI architectures were evolving. I first saw HBM as a real growth opportunity in 2015 and, I’d say, even I was slow. The first signal was SK hynix’s HBM partnership with AMD in 2013… Their first product hit the shelves in 2015 … Samsung first announced HBM in 2016… its foundry… Micron … HBM roadmap… and a product …mid-2023. Bottom line is it’s hard to blame the government for being slow.

Samsung and SK hynix HBM competitive positions? Both Samsung and SK hynix are strong competitors in the AI semiconductor supply chain. SK Hynix has the edge with its advantages of 1) … 2)… and 3) … Samsung has the same … advantage, however … TSMC. The HBM business is a ménage à trois of AI chip designer, memory maker, and foundry. All three must partner closely to create viable HBM products. SK hynix was the first to exploit the unique nature of the HBM business... That makes Micron the biggest threat to … while AMD and Nvidia need …

CXMT and YMTC HBM competitive positions? CXMT and YMTC are definitely competitive threats ̶̶̶̶ ̶̶̶̶ especially YMTC in NAND flash, as this technology is… Apple … As for DRAMs, this technology …

The next chokepoint in AI? Workforce… The SIA and SEMI are doing a fantastic job of aligning industry, government, and educators to the workforce shortage… Think of it this way, it takes a quarter to make a chip. It takes 3 years to design a chip and 5 years to build a fab from concept to volume production. It takes 20 years to grow a fab or construction worker and 30 years to grow a PhD from conception to competency. The countries that will win are those that husband the best and brightest graduates from their high schools and universities…

Opportunities and risks for memory makers? The opportunities are boundless. Semiconductors are to the 21st century what crude oil was to the 20th century… The biggest risks facing semiconductor companies over the next five years are geopolitical… the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck, China’s push integrate Taiwan, which may become a kinetic conflict, and finally, North Korea… the risks are being locked out of global markets and a TAM split… A Great China Market Wall is being built with government interventions…

“Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” — Winston Churchill