Narrative: 2026 Q2 Automotive Semiconductor TAM by OEM Group

Global automotive semiconductor demand shifts in Q2 2026 as Toyota loses share, Stellantis gains ground, and Chinese carmakers will account for one-third of global demand by 2030.

Toyota retains its position as the largest automotive semiconductor customer, but will lose share from 2025 to 2030 as production headwinds and slower architectural transitions constrain growth. VW faces similar pressure, ceding ground to faster-moving rivals. Stellantis emerges as the standout share gainer among traditional OEMs, driven by above-average production growth and accelerating ADAS and Zonal fitment. Chinese carmakers will account for around one-third of global demand by 2030, but rapid centralization is beginning to constrain per-vehicle semiconductor content growth—and in-house design activity at BYD limits how much of that demand is addressable by external vendors. Start-up OEMs such as Rivian post striking growth rates, but collectively represent only 5.3% of global demand in 2030. The Iran/US conflict has displaced memory constraints as the most immediate supply-chain risk.