The AI Power Paradox: Why Datacenter Emissions Are Outpacing Grid Decarbonization

Datacenter Emissions Forecast • September 17, 2026

A sobering look at the environmental cost of the expansion

Our latest research, the Datacenter Use-Phase Emissions Forecast 2026-2031, provides a sobering look at the environmental cost of this expansion. The data reveals that while electrical grids are getting cleaner, the sheer volume of datacenter capacity growth is threatening to overwhelm these decarbonization gains.

Here is a sneak peek at the critical insights uncovered in the full report, and why technology planners, sustainability executives, and energy leaders must rethink their infrastructure strategies today.

The 233.4 GW Reality: Hyperscalers Take the Wheel

The electrical capacity required to support global IT hardware—servers, storage, and networking—is entering a period of explosive, exponential growth.

According to our forecast, global critical IT load will nearly triple from approximately 79.2 GW in 2025 to a staggering 233.4 GW by 2031. To put this into perspective, converting this capacity into actual power draw means global datacenter electricity demand will reach roughly 1,480 TWh by the end of the forecast period. That is equivalent to 4.3% of total global electricity consumption.

This growth is not distributed evenly. The hyperscale sector is dominating the landscape. By 2031, hyperscale-owned facilities and wholesale capacity serving hyperscalers will account for roughly 70% of the worldwide critical IT load. Because these massive facilities operate with entirely different power densities, cooling requirements, and utilization metrics than traditional enterprise colocation sites, applying generic efficiency assumptions to the market is no longer viable.

The Decarbonization Deficit

The emissions model evaluates multiple electricity-system decarbonization pathways, including the STEPS scenario (reflecting policies currently in place). Under this baseline, the modeled reductions in the carbon intensity of the power supply are simply not enough to offset the massive influx of new IT capacity.

By 2031, in our central 60% average load-factor case, annual datacenter use-phase emissions will reach approximately 436 MT CO2. For context, that means global datacenter operations will emit more carbon annually than the entire United Kingdom produced in 2025.

Furthermore, the rising trend of utilizing on-site fossil fuel generation (such as natural gas) to bypass grid constraints could severely dilute the anticipated benefits of a greening grid, locking facilities into high-emission footprints for decades.

Uncover the Full Forecast

The path to 2031 requires precision, data, and a clear-eyed view of how location, grid health, and hyperscale dominance intersect.

The full Datacenter Use-Phase Emissions Forecast 2026-2031 offers granular sensitivity analyses, regional breakdowns (North America, Latin America, EMEA, and APAC), and a deep dive into the varying load-factor scenarios shaping our digital future.