The Chip Insider®–The Iran War’s Helium disconnect update

Summary:The Iran War’s Helium disconnect update: Still a nothing burger

It’s been 10 weeks—3weeks short of a full quarter—and still no measurable effects on the semiconductor industry sales or production. There have been “significant supply disruptions following geopolitical events that have impacted global production capacity” in the helium market, as reported by TechInsights. Yet the media and pundit fears of a mass disruption in semiconductor end markets have yet to materialize as predicted by the Chip Insider in my March 27 edition. As written at the time, the “key reason is that semiconductor supply chain managers are the best in the world and have always acted rapidly to resolve issues with little impact on sales.” So far, the supply chain managers have come through again.

Here’s what TSMC’s Jen-Chau Huang said in their last earnings call: “… we do not expect any near-term impact on our operations for material supply.” UMC said nothing. GlobalFoundries’ Sam Franklin had this to say, “…we've taken some very proactive steps in the first quarter to make sure that we're shoring up our supplies… our expectation is that it probably has about a 0.5 point of margin impact for each quarter as we go through the rest of 2026.” So, also as predicted, it has had little impact on cost.

A large part of this is the simple efficiency of markets… So why not the semiconductor market? … As for substitutability, there are no good ones for helium. So, this is similar to … However, Qatar only accounts for about a third of helium production. As recently as 2010, the US and Canada supplied 3/4ths of the world's helium and in 2025 46% versus Qatar’s 33%...

As far as direct impact… TSMC has diversified supplier contracts. Its on-site recycling recovers 80-to-90% of the helium it uses. It maintains extensive inventories. Samsung and SK hynix did report limited inventory… 10 weeks in, this does not appear to be the case… They also have US sources. Samsung has HeRS recycling system and is investing in faster adoption. Intel gets most of its helium from US sources in … Intel has not reported on any issues resulting from the global helium shortage. Intel was arguably the most prepared for this. Micron, like Intel, relies mostly on US sources for its helium. It has a long-term partnership with Air Liquide, which is building an Idaho plant for its supply. UMC, GlobalFoundries, and Tower have not reported on any issues resulting from the global helium shortage…

“Forecasting is difficult… Especially when it's about the future”
— Yogi Berra