Global Smartphone Shipments Forecast by Vendor by Region by Quarter: December 2025 Version

Smartphone shipments to grow 2% in 2025, flat in 2026; Apple to overtake Samsung as top vendor between recovery and eased tariffs.

TechInsights slightly tweaked up 2025 and 2026 global smartphone shipment forecast number in this version, driven by the better-than-expected performance of iPhone 17 series, the ongoing recovery in Africa and Middle East region, as well as the eased tariff oncerns. While smartphone price increase and supply shortage of key componets will slow down the growth curve, we expect global smartphone shipments will moderately grow 2% YoY in 2025, and the market would remain flat annually in 2026, under the best scenario. Apple will surpass Samsung being the largest smartphone vendor in 2025 and 2026.