Insight: The Ceiling Became the Floor: DRAM Pricing Has Surpassed Every Scenario

DRAM prices shatter Q1 2026 ceilings as AI demand and HBM economics squeeze supply, forcing buyers to lock in volumes years ahead.

DRAM average selling prices in Q1 2026 have punched through what analysts modeled as the absolute ceiling — the AI Stretch Case — with some SKUs posting nearly 100% increases year-over-year. This insight explains why this cycle is structurally unlike any prior DRAM upturn: HBM production economics are actively shrinking conventional DRAM supply while hyperscaler demand accelerates. Large buyers are locking in supply commitments years out, not waiting for a correction that may never come. Essential reading for analysts recalibrating DRAM forecasts through 2027.