Strategic implications of ASML’s 12-inch EUV reticle and the TSMC-Intel War

October 1, 2026

By 2020, Intel’s Lead Was Gone as TSMC Surged Ahead

Intel’s alignment with Perkin-Elmer in the 70s and Nikon from the 80s into the 2010s drove its competitive manufacturing advantage in the microprocessor wars. TSMC’s alignment with ASML from its earliest days helped seed its leadership in foundry. The same is true for Micron and ASML in DRAMs. By the early 2010s, it looked like TSMC would never catch Intel, the latter of which was developing EUV closely with ASML.

However, a year or two before Intel’s 2015 launch delays, Intel decided to take a pass on ASML’s EUV tools… In 2014, Intel was a good 5 years ahead of the industry. By 2020, Intel’s lead was gone as TSMC surged ahead. More than a TSMC-Intel War story, it’s a geopolitical story as well: The West’s singular… most powerful tool in holding China back is EUV.

Intel’s High-NA Pole Position Demonstrates They Are Back in the Game for the Lead

The critical question: Fast forward to this lithography cycle and the roles are reversed: TSMC has enjoyed a technical lead since 2019. It is the one who has decided to hold off on Hi-NA EUV… You may recall that TSMC was not the first to put EUV into manufacturing. It was Samsung Foundry. But execution issues led to TSMC being first to claim the volume manufacturing win. It’s the F1 equivalent of missing out on pole but winning the race. The race win is the only thing that counts. In chips, it’s far easier to write a ‘first in…’ press release than it is to be first to manufacture a million wafers. This was another TSMC ‘second mouse’ win. In chips, manufacturing millions of wafers is the only thing that counts…

With Hi-NA EUV, it’s Intel that has made the first million wafers on 18A with… Moreover, Anton Shilov’s article on Tom’s Hardware shows a arguably slight technical edge… Obviously, Intel has not won the foundry race. But they have won pole-position in what will be a hard-to-pass race… maybe as hard as Monaco.

Intel’s Hi-NA pole position demonstrates they are back in game for the lead, not with just a participation trophy. That’s a day and night difference from almost 2 years ago… Intel’s back with an advantage in lithography to add to its advantages in BSP and advanced packaging. Meanwhile, lights are out for the start of the A14A race.

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G. Dan Hutcheson: Vice Chair, Senior Research Fellow

Dan is Vice Chair of TechInsights Inc. He is a recognized authority on the semiconductor industry, winning SEMI’s Sales and Marketing Excellence Award in 2012 for “empowering executives with tremendous strategic and tactical marketing value" through his e-letter, The Chip Insider®; his book Maxims of Hi-Tech, and his many interviews of executives.